Android will continue to be the top operating system whereas Windows Phone 7 will trudge up to the second spot by 2015, ahead of iOS, the operating system behind iPhone, research firm IDC (International Data Corporation) has predicted.
The predictions are based on the Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker data from IDC.
Windows Phone 7 currently has only 3.8 per cent market share whereas IDC says it will go up to 20.3 per cent by 2015, the biggest jump ever projected for any platform. The Symbian platform, which will be phased out gradually, holds similar market share currently.
Google’s Android platform would mark its presence in 43.8 per cent of all smartphone by that time from its current share of 38.9 per cent. The Symbian market share will go down substantially since it is being phased out by Nokia, and it will be (virtually) nil by 2015.
“The smartphone floodgates are open wide,” said Kevin Restivo, senior research analyst with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Mobile phone users around the world are turning in their ‘talk-and-text’ devices for smartphones as these devices allow users to perform daily tasks like shopping and banking from anywhere. The growth trend is particularly pronounced in emerging markets where adoption is still in its early days. As a result, the growth in regions such as Asia/Pacific and Latin America, will be dramatic over the coming years.”
“Underpinning smartphone growth is the rapidly shifting operating system landscape,” added Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst with IDC’s Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team.
“End-users are becoming more sophisticated about what kinds of experiences are offered by the different operating systems. Taking this as their cue, operating system developers will strive for more intuitive and seamless experiences, but will also look to differentiate themselves along key features and characteristics.”
Making such predictions is a risky business, especially considering the fact that nobody foresaw the rise of tablet or the Microsoft’s collaboration with Nokia either.
Talking about short term expectations, IDC believes the smartphone market will grow by 55 per cent this year compared to 2010 and the number of smartphones in circulation would double again only by 2015. Even though the iOS market share will go down to 16.9 per cent from current 18.2 per cent, the overall number of tablets being shipped will go up substantially due to the growth in market size.